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e-Commerce Retailing Continues Its Quarterly Return
e-Commerce spending in the second quarter was up an estimated full $1 billion from the first quarter, or $39.7 billion, the Census Bureau notes in preliminary figures ' a 2.6% rise for April through June, a gain of 1.5% from the first quarter and a healthy increase of 14% from the second quarter of last year.
The margin of error for this year's second quarter estimate is plus or minus 1.2%, and plus or minus 3% for the difference between the two years' second quarter.
e-Commerce accounted for 4.1% of all estimated retail sales in the second quarter, the Census Bureau estimates.
Total estimated second-quarter retail sales tallied $971.4 billion; the actual (revised) first-quarter figure remains at the estimated total for that quarter ' $960 billion. Total estimated retail sales were up 7.5% (+0.5%) from a year ago.
The figures show a steady return of e-commerce spending toward the $1 trillion quarterly mark since the second quarter of 2009, when total retail spending was shy of $904 billion, and e-commerce spending was $34.8 billion.
Total estimated retail spending crossed the $1 trillion threshold in the second quarter of 2007, when retailers reported sales of $1.01 trillion, which was a revised figure released in November of that year.
The Census Bureau notes that the second-quarter estimates, which are preliminary until they are revised by the time the third-quarter estimate is released, are adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes. The total estimated sales are also adjusted for trading-day differences and moving holidays.
Unadjusted Figures
Here's how the preliminary numbers came out without adjustments:
- Estimated retail e-commerce sales in the second quarter were $37.2 billion, up 1.5% (+1.2%) from the first quarter.
- Estimated e-commerce retail sales for the second quarter accounted for 3.8% of all estimated retail sales for the second quarter.
- Estimated retail e-commerce sales in the second quarter were up 13.7% (+3%) from the second quarter of 2009.
- Total estimated retail sales for the second quarter were $988.9 billion.
How the Census Bureau Defines e-Commerce
The Census Bureau classifies e-commerce sales as any involving goods and services for which a buyer places an order, or for which price and terms of sale are negotiated, over the Internet, an extranet, an electronic data interchange (“EDI”) network (this is the leading method), e-mail or other online system. Payment needn't be made online for the transaction to count as e-commerce.
Perspective Points
U.S. retail e-commerce for all of 2009 was $141.3 billion ' up about 6% from the $132.4 billion 2008 total.
The Bureau calculated e-tail spending for the fourth quarter of 2009 at $38.1 billion, adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes. That figure put fourth-quarter e-sales 4.2% beyond spending in the third quarter of 2009.
As for same-quarter-to-same-quarter increases, fourth-quarter 2009 e-commerce revised figures show an increase of 14% from the fourth quarter 2008 total, while total retail sales increased 2.1% in the same period.
Survey Description
The sample that the Census Bureau uses to estimate retail e-commerce sales is drawn from the same one used for the Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Survey (“MRTS”) to estimate preliminary and final U.S. retail sales, the Bureau notes. Estimates of advance retail sales are made from an MRTS sample subsample not large enough to measure changes in retail e-commerce sales.
The Census Bureau uses a “stratified simple random sampling method” to select about 12,500 firms whose retail sales are weighted and benchmarked so that they represent the nation's “complete universe” of two million retail firms.
The MRTS sample is probability-based and represents all employer firms engaged in retail activities as defined by the North American Industry Classification System (“NAICS”), the Bureau says. All retailers ' whether or not engaged in e-commerce ' are covered.
The retail sector represents only a small portion of e-commerce transactions, which are by far made primarily in business-to-business markets.
Online travel services, financial brokers and dealers and ticket-sales agencies are not classified as retail, though, and are not included in either the total retail or retail e-commerce sales estimates.
Non-employers are figured into the estimates by benchmarking those figures against prior annual survey estimates that include non-employer sales, based on administrative records. e-Commerce sales are included in the total monthly sales estimates.
The Census Bureau notes that the MRTS sample is updated regularly; new retail employer businesses (including those selling via the Internet), business deaths and other changes to the retail business universe are accounted for. Firms report e-commerce sales separately each month. For each month of a quarter, non-responding sampling-unit data are imputed from responding sampling units in the same kind of business and sales size category. Responding firms represent about 81% of the e-commerce sales estimate, and about 75% of estimated U.S. retail sales for any quarter.
Monthly estimates for each quarter are obtained by summing weighted sales (either reported or imputed), the Census Bureau explains. Monthly estimates are benchmarked to prior annual survey estimates. Quarterly estimates are obtained by summing monthly benchmarked estimates. The figure for the most recent quarter is a preliminary estimate, subject to revision.
The Census Bureau will release third-quarter figures on the 17th of this month.
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Michael Lear-Olimpi is Editor-in-Chief of this newsletter and Editorial Director of Susquehanna Editorial Services, in Harrisburg, PA, which provides editing and writing services ' including writing coaching, and editorial consulting and planning ' to law firms, other types of businesses and individuals. He can be reached at [email protected].
e-Commerce spending in the second quarter was up an estimated full $1 billion from the first quarter, or $39.7 billion, the Census Bureau notes in preliminary figures ' a 2.6% rise for April through June, a gain of 1.5% from the first quarter and a healthy increase of 14% from the second quarter of last year.
The margin of error for this year's second quarter estimate is plus or minus 1.2%, and plus or minus 3% for the difference between the two years' second quarter.
e-Commerce accounted for 4.1% of all estimated retail sales in the second quarter, the Census Bureau estimates.
Total estimated second-quarter retail sales tallied $971.4 billion; the actual (revised) first-quarter figure remains at the estimated total for that quarter ' $960 billion. Total estimated retail sales were up 7.5% (+0.5%) from a year ago.
The figures show a steady return of e-commerce spending toward the $1 trillion quarterly mark since the second quarter of 2009, when total retail spending was shy of $904 billion, and e-commerce spending was $34.8 billion.
Total estimated retail spending crossed the $1 trillion threshold in the second quarter of 2007, when retailers reported sales of $1.01 trillion, which was a revised figure released in November of that year.
The Census Bureau notes that the second-quarter estimates, which are preliminary until they are revised by the time the third-quarter estimate is released, are adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes. The total estimated sales are also adjusted for trading-day differences and moving holidays.
Unadjusted Figures
Here's how the preliminary numbers came out without adjustments:
- Estimated retail e-commerce sales in the second quarter were $37.2 billion, up 1.5% (+1.2%) from the first quarter.
- Estimated e-commerce retail sales for the second quarter accounted for 3.8% of all estimated retail sales for the second quarter.
- Estimated retail e-commerce sales in the second quarter were up 13.7% (+3%) from the second quarter of 2009.
- Total estimated retail sales for the second quarter were $988.9 billion.
How the Census Bureau Defines e-Commerce
The Census Bureau classifies e-commerce sales as any involving goods and services for which a buyer places an order, or for which price and terms of sale are negotiated, over the Internet, an extranet, an electronic data interchange (“EDI”) network (this is the leading method), e-mail or other online system. Payment needn't be made online for the transaction to count as e-commerce.
Perspective Points
U.S. retail e-commerce for all of 2009 was $141.3 billion ' up about 6% from the $132.4 billion 2008 total.
The Bureau calculated e-tail spending for the fourth quarter of 2009 at $38.1 billion, adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes. That figure put fourth-quarter e-sales 4.2% beyond spending in the third quarter of 2009.
As for same-quarter-to-same-quarter increases, fourth-quarter 2009 e-commerce revised figures show an increase of 14% from the fourth quarter 2008 total, while total retail sales increased 2.1% in the same period.
Survey Description
The sample that the Census Bureau uses to estimate retail e-commerce sales is drawn from the same one used for the Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Survey (“MRTS”) to estimate preliminary and final U.S. retail sales, the Bureau notes. Estimates of advance retail sales are made from an MRTS sample subsample not large enough to measure changes in retail e-commerce sales.
The Census Bureau uses a “stratified simple random sampling method” to select about 12,500 firms whose retail sales are weighted and benchmarked so that they represent the nation's “complete universe” of two million retail firms.
The MRTS sample is probability-based and represents all employer firms engaged in retail activities as defined by the North American Industry Classification System (“NAICS”), the Bureau says. All retailers ' whether or not engaged in e-commerce ' are covered.
The retail sector represents only a small portion of e-commerce transactions, which are by far made primarily in business-to-business markets.
Online travel services, financial brokers and dealers and ticket-sales agencies are not classified as retail, though, and are not included in either the total retail or retail e-commerce sales estimates.
Non-employers are figured into the estimates by benchmarking those figures against prior annual survey estimates that include non-employer sales, based on administrative records. e-Commerce sales are included in the total monthly sales estimates.
The Census Bureau notes that the MRTS sample is updated regularly; new retail employer businesses (including those selling via the Internet), business deaths and other changes to the retail business universe are accounted for. Firms report e-commerce sales separately each month. For each month of a quarter, non-responding sampling-unit data are imputed from responding sampling units in the same kind of business and sales size category. Responding firms represent about 81% of the e-commerce sales estimate, and about 75% of estimated U.S. retail sales for any quarter.
Monthly estimates for each quarter are obtained by summing weighted sales (either reported or imputed), the Census Bureau explains. Monthly estimates are benchmarked to prior annual survey estimates. Quarterly estimates are obtained by summing monthly benchmarked estimates. The figure for the most recent quarter is a preliminary estimate, subject to revision.
The Census Bureau will release third-quarter figures on the 17th of this month.
[IMGCAP(1)]
Michael Lear-Olimpi is Editor-in-Chief of this newsletter and Editorial Director of Susquehanna Editorial Services, in Harrisburg, PA, which provides editing and writing services ' including writing coaching, and editorial consulting and planning ' to law firms, other types of businesses and individuals. He can be reached at [email protected].
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