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Fourth Quarter e-Commerce: Lookin' Good!
Fourth-quarter 2010 estimated U.S. retailing rose 3.6% over the third quarter, the Census Bureau reports, as consumer confidence rose through the Christmas season on a wave of slightly rising employment.
e-Commerce crested the wave of rising confidence, with an increase over the third quarter of 5.6% (+2.3%), the Bureau says.
Those percentages translate to $44.1 billion for e-commerce in the fourth quarter ' which represents 4.3% of the total estimated fourth-quarter general retail sales of slightly more than $1.01 trillion.
Total estimated e-commerce sales for 2010 came to $165.4 billion, up 14.8% ('2.3%) from 2009, the Bureau reports.
Total 2010 retail sales increased 7% ('0.5%) from 2009.
2010 e-commerce sales accounted for 4.2% of all retail sales last year. In 2009, e-commerce accounted for 3.9% of all estimated retail sales.
Signs and Signals
A telling fourth-quarter figure ' one that indicated more spending as consumers saw hints of an improving overall job market and a small, but useable, increase in discretionary income ' was a 5.6% leap in e-commerce spending.
The swell came with people's extensive use of e-commerce deals, including free shipping and consumers' unprecedented use of the Internet to dodge crowds at brick-and-mortar outlets through the Christmas shopping season, Nov. 29 through Dec. 13 (another online shopping day, Green Monday).
The Census Bureau pegged 2010 fourth-quarter e-commerce spending at 16.1% more than fourth-quarter 2009 e-tail spending, with estimated 2010 fourth-quarter overall retail spending up 8.1% from the same time in 2009.
Not adjusted, estimated 2010 fourth-quarter e-commerce sales tallied to $52.6 billion, which hopped up 35.5% from the third quarter.
The Crisis in Japan
The improving economy means more consumer spending, and more spending in the industrial-production-manufacturing sectors, where the vast majority of e-commerce occurs, several attorneys who focus on e-commerce practice said, but some market observers wondered what effect the recent disaster caused by the earthquake and tsunami last month in Japan might have on spending in general, and e-commerce in particular.
The consensus: For the foreseeable future, the natural disasters and subsequent nuclear crisis in Japan might put some kinks in the global supply chain, but e-commerce would not notably suffer.
“While I'm not an economist, I don't expect the disaster in Japan will have a critical effect on e-commerce,” Eric Menhart of Washington, DC-based CyberLaw PC, says. “I certainly think that there will be some delays, shortages, and missed deliveries depending on types of goods/services.”
Menhart says he expects technology, and partner flexibility, will help solve problems that do occur.
“Market forces will prevail in the form of alternatives in the marketplace, concessions between parties or similar arrangements,” Menhart says. “One advantage of many e-commerce retailers/servicers is the advantage of being able to relocate data warehouses, restore lost data and reroute shipping schedules. While certainly an inconvenience, business can continue with some flexibility. Compare that to smaller brick-and-mortar stores that often have most or all inventory on-site in one or two physical locations.”
Menhart added a note about contracts among supply-chain and business partners.
“Legally, most business agreements have force majeure provisions which free or limit party obligations where 'acts of God' interfere,” he notes. “I expect that those provisions will almost universally apply to any e-commerce arrangements between parties that were affected by the earthquake and the resulting events.”
Still, some problems may arise, although minor in volume compared to other situations.
“While some litigation will certainly occur, I don't expect to see waves of it, as we've seen in the man-made Gulf of Mexico oil spill,” Menhart says.
Ian Ballon, a partner in the Los Angeles-Silicon Valley office of GreenbergTraurig who specializes in e-commerce law, says only a continued escalation of the nuclear-plant crisis in Japan ' the world's second-largest economy and a major sourcing location for industrial and other vendors around the world ' could have an impact on global e-commerce.
“The Japanese economy is quite strong,” Ballon notes. “Assuming that the government can contain the nuclear reactors, the Japanese economy should rebound and not have a material impact on global e-commerce.”
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Michael Lear-Olimpi is Editor-in-Chief of this newsletter. A long-time journalist and university teacher of writing in a range of genres, he is owner and editorial director of Susquehanna Editorial Services, in Harrisburg, PA. Lear-Olimpi provides writing, editing and article-placement services for law firms and other clients. He can be reached at [email protected].
Fourth-quarter 2010 estimated U.S. retailing rose 3.6% over the third quarter, the Census Bureau reports, as consumer confidence rose through the Christmas season on a wave of slightly rising employment.
e-Commerce crested the wave of rising confidence, with an increase over the third quarter of 5.6% (+2.3%), the Bureau says.
Those percentages translate to $44.1 billion for e-commerce in the fourth quarter ' which represents 4.3% of the total estimated fourth-quarter general retail sales of slightly more than $1.01 trillion.
Total estimated e-commerce sales for 2010 came to $165.4 billion, up 14.8% ('2.3%) from 2009, the Bureau reports.
Total 2010 retail sales increased 7% ('0.5%) from 2009.
2010 e-commerce sales accounted for 4.2% of all retail sales last year. In 2009, e-commerce accounted for 3.9% of all estimated retail sales.
Signs and Signals
A telling fourth-quarter figure ' one that indicated more spending as consumers saw hints of an improving overall job market and a small, but useable, increase in discretionary income ' was a 5.6% leap in e-commerce spending.
The swell came with people's extensive use of e-commerce deals, including free shipping and consumers' unprecedented use of the Internet to dodge crowds at brick-and-mortar outlets through the Christmas shopping season, Nov. 29 through Dec. 13 (another online shopping day, Green Monday).
The Census Bureau pegged 2010 fourth-quarter e-commerce spending at 16.1% more than fourth-quarter 2009 e-tail spending, with estimated 2010 fourth-quarter overall retail spending up 8.1% from the same time in 2009.
Not adjusted, estimated 2010 fourth-quarter e-commerce sales tallied to $52.6 billion, which hopped up 35.5% from the third quarter.
The Crisis in Japan
The improving economy means more consumer spending, and more spending in the industrial-production-manufacturing sectors, where the vast majority of e-commerce occurs, several attorneys who focus on e-commerce practice said, but some market observers wondered what effect the recent disaster caused by the earthquake and tsunami last month in Japan might have on spending in general, and e-commerce in particular.
The consensus: For the foreseeable future, the natural disasters and subsequent nuclear crisis in Japan might put some kinks in the global supply chain, but e-commerce would not notably suffer.
“While I'm not an economist, I don't expect the disaster in Japan will have a critical effect on e-commerce,” Eric Menhart of Washington, DC-based CyberLaw PC, says. “I certainly think that there will be some delays, shortages, and missed deliveries depending on types of goods/services.”
Menhart says he expects technology, and partner flexibility, will help solve problems that do occur.
“Market forces will prevail in the form of alternatives in the marketplace, concessions between parties or similar arrangements,” Menhart says. “One advantage of many e-commerce retailers/servicers is the advantage of being able to relocate data warehouses, restore lost data and reroute shipping schedules. While certainly an inconvenience, business can continue with some flexibility. Compare that to smaller brick-and-mortar stores that often have most or all inventory on-site in one or two physical locations.”
Menhart added a note about contracts among supply-chain and business partners.
“Legally, most business agreements have force majeure provisions which free or limit party obligations where 'acts of God' interfere,” he notes. “I expect that those provisions will almost universally apply to any e-commerce arrangements between parties that were affected by the earthquake and the resulting events.”
Still, some problems may arise, although minor in volume compared to other situations.
“While some litigation will certainly occur, I don't expect to see waves of it, as we've seen in the man-made Gulf of Mexico oil spill,” Menhart says.
Ian Ballon, a partner in the Los Angeles-Silicon Valley office of GreenbergTraurig who specializes in e-commerce law, says only a continued escalation of the nuclear-plant crisis in Japan ' the world's second-largest economy and a major sourcing location for industrial and other vendors around the world ' could have an impact on global e-commerce.
“The Japanese economy is quite strong,” Ballon notes. “Assuming that the government can contain the nuclear reactors, the Japanese economy should rebound and not have a material impact on global e-commerce.”
[IMGCAP(1)]
Michael Lear-Olimpi is Editor-in-Chief of this newsletter. A long-time journalist and university teacher of writing in a range of genres, he is owner and editorial director of Susquehanna Editorial Services, in Harrisburg, PA. Lear-Olimpi provides writing, editing and article-placement services for law firms and other clients. He can be reached at [email protected].
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