e-Tailing Doing Fine

Total estimated retail sales for the third quarter were pegged at $1.052 trillion, an increase of 1.1% over the second quarter of this year (+0.4%).

Second-quarter estimates were $1.041 trillion for total retailing and $47.352 for e-commerce.

In a comparison of year-to-year quarters, this year's third quarter e-commerce estimate retailing increased by 13.7% ('1.8%) from the third quarter of 2010; total estimated retailing sales increased 8.2% ('0.5%) over the same time span.

e-Commerce sales in the third quarter this year accounted for 4.6% of all estimated sales.

Not adjusted for seasonal variation or price changes, U.S. total estimated retail e-commerce sales for the third quarter totaled $44.5 billion, up 0.6% ('1.1%) from the second quarter of this year. Third-quarter e-commerce estimates were up 13.4% ('1.8%) from the third quarter of 2010, and total estimated retail sales increased 8.1% ('0.5%) from the third quarter of 2010.

e-Commerce estimated retail sales this year in the third quarter accounted for 4.2% of total estimated retail sales, not adjusted.

A chart detailing third quarter retail sales, including e-commerce, is available at http://1.usa.gov/dxCvlc.

Holiday Spending Forecasts

The National Retail Federation (NRF), a Washington-based group that follows sales trends, says that even though retailers would push holiday-shopping promotions earlier this year and would again offer free shipping, overall online sales during the winter holiday season would be up noticeably but that individual shoppers would spend slightly less on average than they did last year.

“There's no question consumers are eager to hit the Web this holiday season, and online retailers are prepping by optimizing their sites, beginning their marketing and promotions early, and planning plenty of free shipping promotions as they aim to provide value and convenience for their shoppers,” Fiona Swerdlow, head of research for the NRF's digital division, shop.org, says. “Online retailers will also leverage their social media and mobile platforms for savvy shoppers on the go, knowing how important customer reviews and comparison shopping applications are to holiday shoppers.”

This year, the NRF learned, about 25% of Black Friday shoppers will look for coupon websites such as RetailMeNot.com and FatWallet.com. Thirty-two percent said they would watch for and save e-mail coupons from retailers.

The NRF 2011 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, conducted by BIGResearch, indicated that 52.9% of merchants surveyed (more than 20,000 are queried in separate studies) planned to launch online holiday marketing and promotions by Halloween, an increase of 40% from last year; 37.2% set mid-November to begin their holiday-shopping marketing blitzes. The NRF says that in recent years, nearly 40% of consumers begin their holiday shopping before Halloween.

Research shows that 92% of retailers expect to offer free shipping, ever-more popular among online retailers ' up from 84.8% last year.

Survey results show that 68% of retailers are expecting an increase of about 15% in Internet shopping over last year, when about 64% were looking for a rise.

Shoppers who are pinched for time will raise the number of people looking for retail deals online to an all-time high this holiday shopping season. The NRF says that 46.7% of holiday shoppers will buy something online ' that's up from 43.9% last year.

But this year, the NRF says, the survey data show that the “average shopper” would do 36% of her or his shopping online, as opposed to shoppers whose online portion of holiday shopping was 32.7% last year; and that shopper will spend less overall on holiday shopping this year ' an average of $704.18 instead of the $718.98 average in 2010.

Flexing Buying Trends

The reason? The economy.

Enter the Internet ' again. On average, holiday shoppers browsing the Internet will spend 22% more than most adults ' people aged 25-34, many with small children and who want the convenience of Web shopping. These people, the NRF says, will do 43.7% of their holiday shopping online ' the most people of any age group.

Despite continued fiscal uncertainty across the country, the NRF is looking for an increase of nearly 3% in “holiday gifts and seasonal merchandise” retail sales this year over the same type of buying in 2010, due to more people shopping online (60% of all people surveyed), savvier shoppers, increased use of promotional offers such as coupons, and “additional non-gift purchases for themselves and their families.”

The NRF estimated in October that November and December combined holiday e-tailing would come to $465.6 billion as shoppers used discounts retailers began offering before Halloween. One-third of businesses surveyed said they would begin offering deals earlier than last year, and about 56% said they had increased their shipping budget for free deliveries ' some significantly.

The survey offered the following insights:

• 62.2% of U.S. shoppers would spend less this season because of the economy;
• More will comparison shop to save money;
• 5.7% would comparative shop with a mobile device, up from 3.7% in 2010; and
• 32.1% would more frequently comparative shop online, an increase of 30.9% over last year.

Black Friday and Beyond

The NRF expected 152 million shoppers in stores and online on Black Friday alone. Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, is the traditional start of the holiday shopping season, but the Internet and improved in-store shopping logistics practices have drawn the holiday shopping season into October. In recent years, Cyber Monday, the Monday after Thanksgiving, has become a boon to merchants as people flock to the Internet looking for, and taking advantage of, last-minute and planned sales in which stores try to clear merchandise, often at steeper discounts, that survived the sprees of Black Friday shoppers.

To prepare for the shopping onslaught, many online retailers have been shopping themselves ' for new technologies that will enhance their websites with more advertising and shopping features. Fifty-one percent said they had invested significantly to make their websites work optimally with mobile devices. Nearly 20%, for instance, bought tablet-device applications to meet an expected increase in purchases by people using tablets, among other mobile devices.

Another 35.3% sank money into QR codes in offline advertising, such as in magazine ads and on billboards.

Social Networks

Facebook and other networks will also do their part for online shoppers this Christmas buying season.

“Social media will play a big role in how shoppers follow company sales announcements this holiday season,” Phil Rist, executive vice president, strategic initiatives, for BIGResearch, says. “From Facebook to Twitter and even group buying sites, 'social' retailers may be rewarded this season in terms of additional holiday sales.”

The BIGResearch survey determined that 17.3% of shoppers will watch retailers' Facebook pages. Eleven percent will visit group-buying websites such as Groupon and LivingSocial. As for people with tablets who plan to shop or conduct their own research on holiday items, BIGResearch says 21.3% will seek group-buying Internet sites and that 31.2% will scour retailers' Facebook pages for deals such as coupons and sale announcements.

Of retailers using social-media platforms, nearly 75% put capital into their Facebook (72.5%) and Twitter (41.2%) accounts to prepare for holiday shopping.

Some More Data

The NRF says that 40% of shoppers would begin shopping in November, and that 17% would begin shopping during the first half of December, with 4.1% putting it off until the end of December.

According to the survey, 62.2% of Americans say the U.S. economy will affect their holiday spending plans. To compensate, consumers are expected to comparison shop to save a few dollars. The survey found 5.7% said they would comparative shop using their mobile device more often, up from 3.7% in 2010, and nearly one-third (32.1%) will comparative shop online more often, up from 30.9% last year.

Retail e-commerce activity was up ' barely ' in the third quarter from the second quarter of the year, the U.S. Census Bureau announced in mid-November in its four-times-a-year report of total and electronic-commerce retailing.

The estimate came in at $48.244 billion, adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes.

That number translates to 1.9% over the second quarter (+ 1.1%).

Total estimated retail sales for the third quarter were pegged at $1.052 trillion, an increase of 1.1% over the second quarter of this year (+0.4%).

Second-quarter estimates were $1.041 trillion for total retailing and $47.352 for e-commerce.

In a comparison of year-to-year quarters, this year's third quarter e-commerce estimate retailing increased by 13.7% ('1.8%) from the third quarter of 2010; total estimated retailing sales increased 8.2% ('0.5%) over the same time span.

e-Commerce sales in the third quarter this year accounted for 4.6% of all estimated sales.

Not adjusted for seasonal variation or price changes, U.S. total estimated retail e-commerce sales for the third quarter totaled $44.5 billion, up 0.6% ('1.1%) from the second quarter of this year. Third-quarter e-commerce estimates were up 13.4% ('1.8%) from the third quarter of 2010, and total estimated retail sales increased 8.1% ('0.5%) from the third quarter of 2010.

e-Commerce estimated retail sales this year in the third quarter accounted for 4.2% of total estimated retail sales, not adjusted.

A chart detailing third quarter retail sales, including e-commerce, is available at http://1.usa.gov/dxCvlc.

Holiday Spending Forecasts

The National Retail Federation (NRF), a Washington-based group that follows sales trends, says that even though retailers would push holiday-shopping promotions earlier this year and would again offer free shipping, overall online sales during the winter holiday season would be up noticeably but that individual shoppers would spend slightly less on average than they did last year.

“There's no question consumers are eager to hit the Web this holiday season, and online retailers are prepping by optimizing their sites, beginning their marketing and promotions early, and planning plenty of free shipping promotions as they aim to provide value and convenience for their shoppers,” Fiona Swerdlow, head of research for the NRF's digital division, shop.org, says. “Online retailers will also leverage their social media and mobile platforms for savvy shoppers on the go, knowing how important customer reviews and comparison shopping applications are to holiday shoppers.”

This year, the NRF learned, about 25% of Black Friday shoppers will look for coupon websites such as RetailMeNot.com and FatWallet.com. Thirty-two percent said they would watch for and save e-mail coupons from retailers.

The NRF 2011 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, conducted by BIGResearch, indicated that 52.9% of merchants surveyed (more than 20,000 are queried in separate studies) planned to launch online holiday marketing and promotions by Halloween, an increase of 40% from last year; 37.2% set mid-November to begin their holiday-shopping marketing blitzes. The NRF says that in recent years, nearly 40% of consumers begin their holiday shopping before Halloween.

Research shows that 92% of retailers expect to offer free shipping, ever-more popular among online retailers ' up from 84.8% last year.

Survey results show that 68% of retailers are expecting an increase of about 15% in Internet shopping over last year, when about 64% were looking for a rise.

Shoppers who are pinched for time will raise the number of people looking for retail deals online to an all-time high this holiday shopping season. The NRF says that 46.7% of holiday shoppers will buy something online ' that's up from 43.9% last year.

But this year, the NRF says, the survey data show that the “average shopper” would do 36% of her or his shopping online, as opposed to shoppers whose online portion of holiday shopping was 32.7% last year; and that shopper will spend less overall on holiday shopping this year ' an average of $704.18 instead of the $718.98 average in 2010.

Flexing Buying Trends

The reason? The economy.

Enter the Internet ' again. On average, holiday shoppers browsing the Internet will spend 22% more than most adults ' people aged 25-34, many with small children and who want the convenience of Web shopping. These people, the NRF says, will do 43.7% of their holiday shopping online ' the most people of any age group.

Despite continued fiscal uncertainty across the country, the NRF is looking for an increase of nearly 3% in “holiday gifts and seasonal merchandise” retail sales this year over the same type of buying in 2010, due to more people shopping online (60% of all people surveyed), savvier shoppers, increased use of promotional offers such as coupons, and “additional non-gift purchases for themselves and their families.”

The NRF estimated in October that November and December combined holiday e-tailing would come to $465.6 billion as shoppers used discounts retailers began offering before Halloween. One-third of businesses surveyed said they would begin offering deals earlier than last year, and about 56% said they had increased their shipping budget for free deliveries ' some significantly.

The survey offered the following insights:

• 62.2% of U.S. shoppers would spend less this season because of the economy;
• More will comparison shop to save money;
• 5.7% would comparative shop with a mobile device, up from 3.7% in 2010; and
• 32.1% would more frequently comparative shop online, an increase of 30.9% over last year.

Black Friday and Beyond

The NRF expected 152 million shoppers in stores and online on Black Friday alone. Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, is the traditional start of the holiday shopping season, but the Internet and improved in-store shopping logistics practices have drawn the holiday shopping season into October. In recent years, Cyber Monday, the Monday after Thanksgiving, has become a boon to merchants as people flock to the Internet looking for, and taking advantage of, last-minute and planned sales in which stores try to clear merchandise, often at steeper discounts, that survived the sprees of Black Friday shoppers.

To prepare for the shopping onslaught, many online retailers have been shopping themselves ' for new technologies that will enhance their websites with more advertising and shopping features. Fifty-one percent said they had invested significantly to make their websites work optimally with mobile devices. Nearly 20%, for instance, bought tablet-device applications to meet an expected increase in purchases by people using tablets, among other mobile devices.

Another 35.3% sank money into QR codes in offline advertising, such as in magazine ads and on billboards.

Social Networks

Facebook and other networks will also do their part for online shoppers this Christmas buying season.

“Social media will play a big role in how shoppers follow company sales announcements this holiday season,” Phil Rist, executive vice president, strategic initiatives, for BIGResearch, says. “From Facebook to Twitter and even group buying sites, 'social' retailers may be rewarded this season in terms of additional holiday sales.”

The BIGResearch survey determined that 17.3% of shoppers will watch retailers' Facebook pages. Eleven percent will visit group-buying websites such as Groupon and LivingSocial. As for people with tablets who plan to shop or conduct their own research on holiday items, BIGResearch says 21.3% will seek group-buying Internet sites and that 31.2% will scour retailers' Facebook pages for deals such as coupons and sale announcements.

Of retailers using social-media platforms, nearly 75% put capital into their Facebook (72.5%) and Twitter (41.2%) accounts to prepare for holiday shopping.

Some More Data

The NRF says that 40% of shoppers would begin shopping in November, and that 17% would begin shopping during the first half of December, with 4.1% putting it off until the end of December.

According to the survey, 62.2% of Americans say the U.S. economy will affect their holiday spending plans. To compensate, consumers are expected to comparison shop to save a few dollars. The survey found 5.7% said they would comparative shop using their mobile device more often, up from 3.7% in 2010, and nearly one-third (32.1%) will comparative shop online more often, up from 30.9% last year.