Banner Holiday Retailing Shows Economy Is Improving, if Slowly

That's an increase of 15.5% (+1.4%) from the fourth quarter of 2010. Overall, estimated fourth-quarter retail sales last year were up 6.8% (+0.4%) over the fourth quarter of 2010.

Last year, estimated fourth-quarter retail e-commerce activity accounted for 4.8% of all estimated retail sales, which the Census Bureau preliminarily estimated at $1.071 trillion ' also a record high.

The Census Bureau began tracking quarterly e-commerce sales in 1999, when estimated sales tallied little over $4.5 billion, and total estimated retailing rang up very nearly $725 billion.

On a not adjusted basis, estimated U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the fourth quarter:

• Totaled $61.8 billion, an increase of 38.7% ('2.5%) from the third quarter 2011;
• Increased 16.1% ('1.4%) from the fourth quarter of 2010, while total retail sales increased 6.5% ('0.4%) in the same period; and
• Accounted for 5.5% of total sales.

Total estimated e-commerce sales for 2011 were estimated at $194.3 billion ' again, a record ' an increase of 16.1% ('1.6%) from 2010.

The Census Bureau noted that total estimated retail sales in 2011 increased 7.9% ('0.5%) from 2010, with estimated e-commerce sales last year accounting for 4.6% of all retail sales.

In 2010, e-commerce sales accounted for 4.3% of all retail sales, according to the Census Bureau.

Seasonal Trends

Washington-based sales-trend watcher and lobbying group the National Retail Federation (NRF) says holiday retail spending during the fourth quarter (the NRF defines holiday season as all of November and December) hit $471.5 billion ' a 4.1% increase over 2010 season spending.

The aggregate growth was a high point in a holiday-spending season that the NRF says was marked by “hills and valleys” of retail activity caused by an undulating economy stuck in a sluggish recovery from the long-standing recession. Consumers bulked up on discretionary purchases in November, taking advantage of deals and online shopping even before the traditional holiday-spending season began on Black Friday.

Yet, despite the slow recovery, strong discretionary purchasing in November lifted overall holiday retailing in December to 4.1% over 2010, even though the nation basked in warmer-than-usual weather for the month, the NRF says.

The overall increase was a bit over the NRF's initial forecast for spending growth for the 2011 holiday season, which it pegged at a possible 3.8%.

“The right mix of strong promotions, lean inventories and an emphasis on value put retailers in the perfect position to end the year on a high note,” says NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “A better-than-expected holiday season is welcome news for an economic recovery that continues to be sluggish, and demonstrates retail's powerful role as an engine of growth.”

“Discretionary” items the NRF's surveys include home d'cor items, sporting goods, books and personal-care items. The clothing sector saw December seasonally adjusted and non-adjusted growth of .7% and 7.9%, respectively, over November, the NRF says. The Census Bureau in January reported that what it calls “non-general merchandise” ' cars, and sales at gas stations and eateries ' rose .1% with seasonal adjustment and 6.2% without adjustment from November and from 2010, respectively.

Even with spending ups and downs last year linked to changing reports on the state of the U.S. economy, the NRF believes 2012 retailing will fare well.

“In a matchup between the final two months of 2011, November clearly wins, but in the end, retailers' promotions struck the right chord for budget-focused holiday shoppers,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz says. “Though we are seeing evidence that the economy still has a critical hold on consumers' purchase decisions, this strength in spending could continue into 2012.”

Following are some retail-sales statistics by product category from the NRF:

• Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores sales increased 0.4% seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 3.1% unadjusted year-over-year;
• Electronics stores sales decreased 3.9% seasonally adjusted from the previous month and declined 0.5% unadjusted year-over-year; and
• Sales at home and home furnishings stores increased 1.0% seasonally adjusted from November and a solid 5.7% unadjusted year-over-year.

Doing It Right

In related news, an NRF-American Express survey of more than 9,000 people ranked an Internet company ' really, the model of retail e-commerce over the last decade and a half ' as the best in overall customer service for shoppers.

The winner of the seventh annual NRF Foundation/American Express Customers' Choice Survey: Amazon.com. The Seattle-based company ranked second last year. This year, Zappos.com came in third and Overstock.com came in fourth. (L.L.Bean, which does a brisk online business, finished second.)

“Today's consumer has high expectations when it comes to their shopping experience, whether in-store or online,” says NRF Foundation Executive Director Kathy Mance. “The top retailers on this list found effective ways to win over shoppers not only with low prices, but also stellar customer service and value-added features such as unique mobile applications, free shipping and unforgettable in-store experiences.”

Who had a blue Christmas last year?

Not retail e-commerce companies. Their holidays were decidedly green.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported last month the biggest fourth-quarter estimated e-commerce sales figures in history: $51.4 billion, adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes ' an increase of 5.8% from the third quarter.

That's an increase of 15.5% (+1.4%) from the fourth quarter of 2010. Overall, estimated fourth-quarter retail sales last year were up 6.8% (+0.4%) over the fourth quarter of 2010.

Last year, estimated fourth-quarter retail e-commerce activity accounted for 4.8% of all estimated retail sales, which the Census Bureau preliminarily estimated at $1.071 trillion ' also a record high.

The Census Bureau began tracking quarterly e-commerce sales in 1999, when estimated sales tallied little over $4.5 billion, and total estimated retailing rang up very nearly $725 billion.

On a not adjusted basis, estimated U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the fourth quarter:

• Totaled $61.8 billion, an increase of 38.7% ('2.5%) from the third quarter 2011;
• Increased 16.1% ('1.4%) from the fourth quarter of 2010, while total retail sales increased 6.5% ('0.4%) in the same period; and
• Accounted for 5.5% of total sales.

Total estimated e-commerce sales for 2011 were estimated at $194.3 billion ' again, a record ' an increase of 16.1% ('1.6%) from 2010.

The Census Bureau noted that total estimated retail sales in 2011 increased 7.9% ('0.5%) from 2010, with estimated e-commerce sales last year accounting for 4.6% of all retail sales.

In 2010, e-commerce sales accounted for 4.3% of all retail sales, according to the Census Bureau.

Seasonal Trends

Washington-based sales-trend watcher and lobbying group the National Retail Federation (NRF) says holiday retail spending during the fourth quarter (the NRF defines holiday season as all of November and December) hit $471.5 billion ' a 4.1% increase over 2010 season spending.

The aggregate growth was a high point in a holiday-spending season that the NRF says was marked by “hills and valleys” of retail activity caused by an undulating economy stuck in a sluggish recovery from the long-standing recession. Consumers bulked up on discretionary purchases in November, taking advantage of deals and online shopping even before the traditional holiday-spending season began on Black Friday.

Yet, despite the slow recovery, strong discretionary purchasing in November lifted overall holiday retailing in December to 4.1% over 2010, even though the nation basked in warmer-than-usual weather for the month, the NRF says.

The overall increase was a bit over the NRF's initial forecast for spending growth for the 2011 holiday season, which it pegged at a possible 3.8%.

“The right mix of strong promotions, lean inventories and an emphasis on value put retailers in the perfect position to end the year on a high note,” says NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “A better-than-expected holiday season is welcome news for an economic recovery that continues to be sluggish, and demonstrates retail's powerful role as an engine of growth.”

“Discretionary” items the NRF's surveys include home d'cor items, sporting goods, books and personal-care items. The clothing sector saw December seasonally adjusted and non-adjusted growth of .7% and 7.9%, respectively, over November, the NRF says. The Census Bureau in January reported that what it calls “non-general merchandise” ' cars, and sales at gas stations and eateries ' rose .1% with seasonal adjustment and 6.2% without adjustment from November and from 2010, respectively.

Even with spending ups and downs last year linked to changing reports on the state of the U.S. economy, the NRF believes 2012 retailing will fare well.

“In a matchup between the final two months of 2011, November clearly wins, but in the end, retailers' promotions struck the right chord for budget-focused holiday shoppers,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz says. “Though we are seeing evidence that the economy still has a critical hold on consumers' purchase decisions, this strength in spending could continue into 2012.”

Following are some retail-sales statistics by product category from the NRF:

• Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores sales increased 0.4% seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 3.1% unadjusted year-over-year;
• Electronics stores sales decreased 3.9% seasonally adjusted from the previous month and declined 0.5% unadjusted year-over-year; and
• Sales at home and home furnishings stores increased 1.0% seasonally adjusted from November and a solid 5.7% unadjusted year-over-year.

Doing It Right

In related news, an NRF-American Express survey of more than 9,000 people ranked an Internet company ' really, the model of retail e-commerce over the last decade and a half ' as the best in overall customer service for shoppers.

The winner of the seventh annual NRF Foundation/American Express Customers' Choice Survey: Amazon.com. The Seattle-based company ranked second last year. This year, Zappos.com came in third and Overstock.com came in fourth. (L.L.Bean, which does a brisk online business, finished second.)

“Today's consumer has high expectations when it comes to their shopping experience, whether in-store or online,” says NRF Foundation Executive Director Kathy Mance. “The top retailers on this list found effective ways to win over shoppers not only with low prices, but also stellar customer service and value-added features such as unique mobile applications, free shipping and unforgettable in-store experiences.”