E-Commerce Rising

The activity represented an estimated increase in total e-commerce revenues from 2001 to 2002 of 3.1%.

Comparing fourth quarters, last year's estimated retail e-commerce gain over 2001 was 28.2%, down six an a half percentage points from the third quarter's gain but up from the second quarter's increase from the same period in 2001 of 24.5%.

Fourth-quarter e-commerce represented 1.6% of all retail commerce for the quarter ' which came in at $869.6 billion ' a high since the government began keeping and comparing e-commerce statistics in 1999.

The department added that fourth-quarter estimated e-commerce activity ' $14.3 billion unadjusted for holiday, seasonal and trading-day differences ' jumped 29.3% from the third quarter.

Defining e-commerce

By e-commerce, Washington means any sale of goods or services involving an order placed, or sale price and terms negotiated, via 'Internet, extranet, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) network, electronic mail, or other online system.' Payment, the Commerce Department notes, needn't be made online.

Commerce's statistics do not include online travel agency transactions, financial brokerage or ticket sales, such as to entertainment events. Because the figures are unadjusted, market and financial analysts often find them of little hard comparative use.

Still, some experts who follow U.S. commercial trends find the raw data an interesting reflection of basic market activity and, to some extent, an indicator of spending and economic activity.

Commerce collects data monthly from 11,000 retail firms and uses weighted calculations to yield representative estimated sales volume of approximately 2 million U.S. retail establishments. The department imputes data for nonreporting firms by using information from firms of similar sizes and business type that do respond.

But one thing seems clear from Commerce Department statistics from 1999 to the end of last year: E-commerce appears to be here to stay. Looking at estimated percentages of sales for the entire year, e-commerce retailing accounted for 1.4% of all retail activity for 2002 ' a level very close to the last quarter's estimated percentage of e-commerce among all sales.

As for what the first quarter of this year might look like, the Commerce Department said it would issue retail e-commerce sales estimates for the period ending March 31 in May.

Some comparative statistics appear below.

Estimated quarterly U.S. retail sales: Total and e-commerce

Data in millions of dollars, not adjusted for seasonal, holiday and trading-day differences

Period Retail sales E-commerce as percent

of total sales

2001 Total E-commerce

1^st quarter 724,224 8,256 1.1

2^nd quarter 805,245 8,246 1.0

3^rd quarter 782,088 8,236 1.1

4^th quarter 856,285 11,178 1.3

2002

1^st quarter 743,810 9,880 1.3

2^nd quarter 825,243 10,265 1.2

3^rd quarter 827,585 11,083 1.3

4^th quarter 869,588 14,334 1.6

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau

What does a cash-register ka-ching sound like online?

It's the tune of $45.6 billion.

That's the estimated e-commerce sales ring-up for 2002, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported in February.

The activity represented an estimated increase in total e-commerce revenues from 2001 to 2002 of 3.1%.

Comparing fourth quarters, last year's estimated retail e-commerce gain over 2001 was 28.2%, down six an a half percentage points from the third quarter's gain but up from the second quarter's increase from the same period in 2001 of 24.5%.

Fourth-quarter e-commerce represented 1.6% of all retail commerce for the quarter ' which came in at $869.6 billion ' a high since the government began keeping and comparing e-commerce statistics in 1999.

The department added that fourth-quarter estimated e-commerce activity ' $14.3 billion unadjusted for holiday, seasonal and trading-day differences ' jumped 29.3% from the third quarter.

Defining e-commerce

By e-commerce, Washington means any sale of goods or services involving an order placed, or sale price and terms negotiated, via 'Internet, extranet, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) network, electronic mail, or other online system.' Payment, the Commerce Department notes, needn't be made online.

Commerce's statistics do not include online travel agency transactions, financial brokerage or ticket sales, such as to entertainment events. Because the figures are unadjusted, market and financial analysts often find them of little hard comparative use.

Still, some experts who follow U.S. commercial trends find the raw data an interesting reflection of basic market activity and, to some extent, an indicator of spending and economic activity.

Commerce collects data monthly from 11,000 retail firms and uses weighted calculations to yield representative estimated sales volume of approximately 2 million U.S. retail establishments. The department imputes data for nonreporting firms by using information from firms of similar sizes and business type that do respond.

But one thing seems clear from Commerce Department statistics from 1999 to the end of last year: E-commerce appears to be here to stay. Looking at estimated percentages of sales for the entire year, e-commerce retailing accounted for 1.4% of all retail activity for 2002 ' a level very close to the last quarter's estimated percentage of e-commerce among all sales.

As for what the first quarter of this year might look like, the Commerce Department said it would issue retail e-commerce sales estimates for the period ending March 31 in May.

Some comparative statistics appear below.

Estimated quarterly U.S. retail sales: Total and e-commerce

Data in millions of dollars, not adjusted for seasonal, holiday and trading-day differences

Period Retail sales E-commerce as percent

of total sales

2001 Total E-commerce

1^st quarter 724,224 8,256 1.1

2^nd quarter 805,245 8,246 1.0

3^rd quarter 782,088 8,236 1.1

4^th quarter 856,285 11,178 1.3

2002

1^st quarter 743,810 9,880 1.3

2^nd quarter 825,243 10,265 1.2

3^rd quarter 827,585 11,083 1.3

4^th quarter 869,588 14,334 1.6

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau