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Leasing Industry Closes 2003 with Positive Signs
After three consecutive quarters of failing to show any portfolio growth, the equipment leasing industry came through at year's end to close 2003 with only a slight net loss in portfolio size. According to the Equipment Leasing Association's Quarterly Performance Indicators Report (PIR), total net portfolio growth decreased by a total of only 0.4% in 2003. While 2003 marked the second consecutive year in which the leasing industry failed to recognize any net portfolio growth for a calendar year, based on how 2003 was shaping up after the third quarter, the modest overall drop-off was not such bad news. In fact, 2003 was not as bad a year for the leasing industry as one might have expected given the many challenges that have been presented over the past few years. New business volume and credit approvals were up, and charge-offs and actual delinquencies were down. Employment remains a concern, but overall, it appears that the leasing industry is weathering the storm.
Total net portfolio at the end of the fourth quarter of 2002 was $64 billion, which then dropped to $63.4 billion in the first quarter of 2003. Portfolio growth then fell to $62.7 billion at mid-year before falling to the 12-month low of $62.4 billion in the third quarter of 2003. Fortunately, portfolio growth recovered in the fourth quarter of 2003 to close out the year at $63.7 billion, a 0.4% decrease from 2002. It is of some concern that this is the second overall decrease in portfolio growth in consecutive years, and that similar to 2002, the industry experienced no portfolio growth over a period of three quarters in 2003. Typically, there is a decrease in portfolio growth in the first quarter of a new year following a sharp increase in year-end activity; but in both 2003 and 2002 there were no quick rebounds from the first quarter drop-off. In both of the last 2 years, the rebound did not occur until year-end and at that, the recovery was incomplete, leaving the industry with negative annual growth.
Total new business volume, however, was a much more encouraging category, which increased by a total of 3.4% during 2003. New business volume stood at $11.5 billion at the close of the fourth quarter of 2002, and then plunged by 26% to $8.5 billion in the first quarter of 2003. New business volume then jumped back up to $10.8 billion in the second quarter of 2003 and stayed reasonably stable through the third quarter falling off to $10.7 billion. Another healthy increase came in the fourth quarter, which saw new business volume rise to $11.9 billion, a strong gain of 11.2% from the third quarter.
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