e-Commerce Up Again, Census Bureau Says

The estimated total net value of retail e-commerce sales in the third quarter was $22.3 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

That figure, which accounts for 2.3% of all retail sales, is about $1 billion more than the estimated retail e-commerce activity in the second quarter.

Third-quarter e-retail sales came in 5.7% higher than for the second quarter.

Total estimated retailing racked up $957.9 billion, the government says.

The Census Bureau notes that the figures are adjusted for what the government calls “seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences,” but not for price changes.

Census Bureau figures show a healthy jump in estimated e-commerce activity in the retail sector compared to the same time last year ' with this year's third-quarter e-commerce estimate 26.7% above the same quarter in 2004, with total retail sales up by about 8.5%. Percentage-wise, the third-quarter increase over last year's third-quarter estimated total is 1.7.

The Bureau points out that the third-quarter e-commerce estimate is plus or minus 4.5%, while the possible deviation for the total estimate of retail activity for the third quarter is half a percentage point.

In what seems a quarterly ritual since the Census Bureau began tracking e-commerce retail activity in 1999, the third-quarter adjusted estimate appears to be the largest to date, with the tally about $5 billion above the highest recent adjusted or unadjusted estimates ' preliminary or revised.

The government doesn't comment in the e-stats report on what the figures mean, but it seems apparent from the steadily rising retailing e-commerce totals since the second half of 1999 that e-commerce continues to expand ' as an economic activity in its own right, and as a percentage of total retail sales in the United States, the latter a figure the bureau does track. It's an easy conclusion, supported by reports from analysts and other e-commerce and technology observers, that despite some recent dips in consumer confidence in buying products or services online that were caused by information-security compromises, increasing access to Internet connections is fueling consumers' foray and companies' voyage into e-commerce.

The government says that not accounting for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, estimated U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the third quarter totaled $20.8 billion, up 5.1% ' give or take 1.7% ' from this year's second quarter. That figure puts this year's total e-commerce non-adjusted estimate 26.4% ' plus or minus 4.5% ' past the third quarter of 2004.

The Second Quarter

The Census Bureau says that U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the second quarter, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, was $21.1 billion, a 7.2% ' give or take 0.8% ' increase over this year's first quarter.

Total second-quarter retail sales were estimated at $940.8 billion, up 2.6% ('0.3%) from the first quarter of the year. e-Commerce sales in the second quarter accounted for 2.1% of total estimated retail sales.

Year to year, the e-commerce estimate was 26% ('3.6%) from 2004's second quarter, while total retail sales rose 8.4% ('0.5%) in the same period.

Without adjustments, U.S. retail e-commerce sales estimates for the second quarter tallied out at $19.8 billion, an increase of 3.5% ' plus or minus 0.8% ' from the first quarter.

This year's second quarter e-commerce estimate increased 25.7% ('3.6%) from the second quarter of 2004; total retail sales increased 8.1 % ('0.5%) in the same period.

A Note on Adjusted Estimates

The Census Bureau notes that its e-commerce and overall retail quarterly reports adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, are figured with quarterly e-commerce sales estimates for the fourth quarter of 1999 to the current quarter as input to the Bureau's X-12 ARIMA program to derive the adjusted estimates.

For sales figures, the Bureau derives quarterly adjusted estimates by coming up with sums of adjusted monthly sales estimates for each respective quarter. Seasonal adjustment of estimates is an approximation, the government notes, that is based on current and past experiences in compiling retail sales figures and estimating volumes of activities, the Census Bureau notes.

Counsel who compile estimated sales figures for e-commerce clients and who might use that data to advise them can get information on the X-12 ARIMA program at www.census.gov/srd/www/x12a.

e-Commerce Defined,
And a Bit on The Figures

The government considers e-commerce to be any sale of services or goods conducted when a buyer places an order, or negotiates sale price and terms, via Internet, extranet, electronic data interchange (EDI), e-mail or other online channel. Payment needn't be made online.

Estimates of total and e-commerce retail sales are based on figures from the Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) and the Bureau's, and other agencies,' administrative records. Estimates and final sales figures are taken from MRTS samples.

The Census Bureau notes on its Web site (www.census.gov) that “A stratified simple random sampling method is used to select approximately 11,000 retail firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over two million retail firms.”

The Bureau's figures are based on a sample that is itself based on probabilities, and reflects all firms with employees that conduct retail sales that fit the definition maintained by the North American Industry Classification System, which is known as NAICS. All retailers sampled by the survey are included whether or not they conduct e-commerce. Not classified as retail establishments, and as not providing retail services, are online travel sites, financial brokers and financial dealers, and ticket agencies, the Bureau notes.

Non-employer establishments are also represented in the MRTS sampling via benchmarks of previous yearly survey estimates.

The Census Bureau says that the survey is updated regularly to “account for new retail employer businesses (including those selling via the Internet), business deaths, and other changes to the retail business universe.”

The government requests that firms report monthly e-commerce statistics separately from traditional sales.

The Census Bureau plans to release estimated e-commerce retail figures for the fourth quarter on Feb. 17.

Estimate Reliability

Because estimates in the Census Bureau's reports are based on a sample survey, the figures may contain sampling error and non-sampling error, the government says.

The Census Bureau defines sampling error as the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a total enumeration of the population conducted under the same survey conditions. The error occurs, the Bureau says on its Web site, because only a subset of the entire population is measured in a sample survey.

Standard errors and coefficients of variation are estimated measures of sampling variation.

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The estimated total net value of retail e-commerce sales in the third quarter was $22.3 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

That figure, which accounts for 2.3% of all retail sales, is about $1 billion more than the estimated retail e-commerce activity in the second quarter.

Third-quarter e-retail sales came in 5.7% higher than for the second quarter.

Total estimated retailing racked up $957.9 billion, the government says.

The Census Bureau notes that the figures are adjusted for what the government calls “seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences,” but not for price changes.

Census Bureau figures show a healthy jump in estimated e-commerce activity in the retail sector compared to the same time last year ' with this year's third-quarter e-commerce estimate 26.7% above the same quarter in 2004, with total retail sales up by about 8.5%. Percentage-wise, the third-quarter increase over last year's third-quarter estimated total is 1.7.

The Bureau points out that the third-quarter e-commerce estimate is plus or minus 4.5%, while the possible deviation for the total estimate of retail activity for the third quarter is half a percentage point.

In what seems a quarterly ritual since the Census Bureau began tracking e-commerce retail activity in 1999, the third-quarter adjusted estimate appears to be the largest to date, with the tally about $5 billion above the highest recent adjusted or unadjusted estimates ' preliminary or revised.

The government doesn't comment in the e-stats report on what the figures mean, but it seems apparent from the steadily rising retailing e-commerce totals since the second half of 1999 that e-commerce continues to expand ' as an economic activity in its own right, and as a percentage of total retail sales in the United States, the latter a figure the bureau does track. It's an easy conclusion, supported by reports from analysts and other e-commerce and technology observers, that despite some recent dips in consumer confidence in buying products or services online that were caused by information-security compromises, increasing access to Internet connections is fueling consumers' foray and companies' voyage into e-commerce.

The government says that not accounting for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, estimated U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the third quarter totaled $20.8 billion, up 5.1% ' give or take 1.7% ' from this year's second quarter. That figure puts this year's total e-commerce non-adjusted estimate 26.4% ' plus or minus 4.5% ' past the third quarter of 2004.

The Second Quarter

The Census Bureau says that U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the second quarter, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, was $21.1 billion, a 7.2% ' give or take 0.8% ' increase over this year's first quarter.

Total second-quarter retail sales were estimated at $940.8 billion, up 2.6% ('0.3%) from the first quarter of the year. e-Commerce sales in the second quarter accounted for 2.1% of total estimated retail sales.

Year to year, the e-commerce estimate was 26% ('3.6%) from 2004's second quarter, while total retail sales rose 8.4% ('0.5%) in the same period.

Without adjustments, U.S. retail e-commerce sales estimates for the second quarter tallied out at $19.8 billion, an increase of 3.5% ' plus or minus 0.8% ' from the first quarter.

This year's second quarter e-commerce estimate increased 25.7% ('3.6%) from the second quarter of 2004; total retail sales increased 8.1 % ('0.5%) in the same period.

A Note on Adjusted Estimates

The Census Bureau notes that its e-commerce and overall retail quarterly reports adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, are figured with quarterly e-commerce sales estimates for the fourth quarter of 1999 to the current quarter as input to the Bureau's X-12 ARIMA program to derive the adjusted estimates.

For sales figures, the Bureau derives quarterly adjusted estimates by coming up with sums of adjusted monthly sales estimates for each respective quarter. Seasonal adjustment of estimates is an approximation, the government notes, that is based on current and past experiences in compiling retail sales figures and estimating volumes of activities, the Census Bureau notes.

Counsel who compile estimated sales figures for e-commerce clients and who might use that data to advise them can get information on the X-12 ARIMA program at www.census.gov/srd/www/x12a.

e-Commerce Defined,
And a Bit on The Figures

The government considers e-commerce to be any sale of services or goods conducted when a buyer places an order, or negotiates sale price and terms, via Internet, extranet, electronic data interchange (EDI), e-mail or other online channel. Payment needn't be made online.

Estimates of total and e-commerce retail sales are based on figures from the Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) and the Bureau's, and other agencies,' administrative records. Estimates and final sales figures are taken from MRTS samples.

The Census Bureau notes on its Web site (www.census.gov) that “A stratified simple random sampling method is used to select approximately 11,000 retail firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over two million retail firms.”

The Bureau's figures are based on a sample that is itself based on probabilities, and reflects all firms with employees that conduct retail sales that fit the definition maintained by the North American Industry Classification System, which is known as NAICS. All retailers sampled by the survey are included whether or not they conduct e-commerce. Not classified as retail establishments, and as not providing retail services, are online travel sites, financial brokers and financial dealers, and ticket agencies, the Bureau notes.

Non-employer establishments are also represented in the MRTS sampling via benchmarks of previous yearly survey estimates.

The Census Bureau says that the survey is updated regularly to “account for new retail employer businesses (including those selling via the Internet), business deaths, and other changes to the retail business universe.”

The government requests that firms report monthly e-commerce statistics separately from traditional sales.

The Census Bureau plans to release estimated e-commerce retail figures for the fourth quarter on Feb. 17.

Estimate Reliability

Because estimates in the Census Bureau's reports are based on a sample survey, the figures may contain sampling error and non-sampling error, the government says.

The Census Bureau defines sampling error as the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a total enumeration of the population conducted under the same survey conditions. The error occurs, the Bureau says on its Web site, because only a subset of the entire population is measured in a sample survey.

Standard errors and coefficients of variation are estimated measures of sampling variation.

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