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A More Secure Investment?

BY Thomas B. Howard
January 29, 2014

For many decades, U.S. institutional investors and large bond insurers have viewed the general obligation (GO) municipal bonds from rated investment grade municipalities as a much higher value investment vehicle than an illiquid municipal lease subject to annual appropriation. Have the recent large municipal bankruptcies and the increasing recognition of underfunded pension funds improved the attractiveness of the less liquid municipal lease? In the current climate, with cities like Stockton, CA, and Detroit, MI, causing concern for municipal investors, are the municipal lease and its annual appropriation risk are now more secure because of the fully assigned security in the municipality's essential equipment?

In the wake of the recession, unprecedented large U.S. city bankruptcies are emerging, under significantly different circumstances than previous municipal bankruptcies. The Great Recession put more declining revenue pressure on most municipal entities due to generally lower property tax revenue and a reduction in grants and revenue sharing from U.S. federal and state sources, which had been relatively stable or increasing for decades. On a national scale, the 10 worst housing markets saw declines of at least 55% from their peak (NBC News, Sept. 26, 2012).

Two notable bankruptcy case studies from The Great Recession are Stockton and Detroit: the former having reached a settlement in 2013, while the latter is just beginning its hotly contested bankruptcy process.

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