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Offshore Restructuring Outlook
The first quarter of 2018 has seen the Dow and NASDAQ pushing through record highs, increasing consumer confidence in the U.S. and Europe (excluding the UK) and the January ADP jobs report, the latest at the time of writing, showed private payrolls increasing by 49,000 (26.5%) more than expected. Further, cheap credit, not only from traditional bank sources but from the private equity and hedge funds that have used their dry powder to pile into the corporate lending space, has continued, with the Alternative Credit Council and the Alternative Investment Management Association expecting private credit funds to manage in excess of $1 trillion by 2020 (up from $600 billion at the end of 2016 on the basis of Preqin data).
However, notwithstanding the above positive data, there are segments in the market that are expected to need continued restructuring work, both onshore and offshore through 2018, particularly: offshore oil and gas drillers; European and U.S. retail; and the highly leveraged Chinese real estate sector.
Energy Restructuring
Two key issues exist for the offshore oil and gas drillers: 1) the price of oil; and 2) the continuing oversupply of rigs in the market. Both will feed into the number of new drilling contracts being awarded, as well as the day-rates achievable for such contracts.
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