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We Must Never Let our Cyber Guard Down
There are many questions and conflicting opinions about the cyberwar aspects of the Russia-Ukraine war. In the days leading up to the Russian invasion, there were many indications that we were in for a cataclysmic-level series of cyber events that could be directed against the United States. As we have discovered time after time, we have a backlog of vulnerabilities such as Log4j and a history of close calls. Russia also has a long history of successful cyber warfare attacks, a history of direct and indirect threats, and now we hear many warnings about new threat conditions. It is important that we don't become numb and complacent over time. There are many layers, and complexities to this cyberthreat state and countless possibilities of what may happen from this point forward.
Soon after the conflict started, the background noise was undeniable. Stirring out in the unknown, threat indications were off the charts, and they have sustained at a historical pace. An 800% increase in cyberattacks originating from suspected Russian actors was seen. While many were surprised when the earliest attacks emerged against Ukraine, quickly the tables turned and many of the hackers attacked Russia's infrastructure instead motivated to defend Ukraine. It is irresponsible for us not to recognize that this is a global cyberwar, and attacks can and will come from anywhere not just Russia, China, and a few rogue countries.
Unfortunately, when cyber defenses work, there is a human tendency to become complacent. If you fall into this perception trap, you will quickly find yourself in survival mode — scrambling to restore and recover, and in a position where the best explanation was that the attack was somehow "unexpected." The Russia threat is still very real. The global cyberthreat is also still very real. The nature of the next move from hackers is still unknown, but based on history and the thunder of background activity, cyber attacks are extremely high on the list.
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