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Inflation, Interest Rates, and Already-Increasing Commercial Bankruptcy Filings
Inflation has been running red hot in 2022. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September on a seasonally-adjusted basis, which amounts to an 8.2% year-over-year increase since September 2021 before seasonal adjustment. See, https://bit.ly/3SkraQf (site last visited 10/17/22). The sharpest increases have been in the shelter, food, and medical care indexes. Id. The 4.9% decrease in the gasoline index provided welcome relief at the pump, but was not enough to offset the increases in the other indices. Id. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is doing its best to cool off the economy without pushing the country (and, the world) into recession — the mythical "soft landing." In 2022, the Federal Reserve has already raised the federal funds rate five times for a total of 300 bps. See, https://nyfed.org/3EXm9dk (site last visited 10/17/22). The last three increases have been 75 bps each. Id. This comes after nearly two years of the Federal Funds Rate hovering around 0%. Id.
It does not take a Ph.D. in economics to measure the impact of these financial pressures. Surging demand, supply chain snags, and rising rates and prices can be felt in real time when you order groceries, go to a restaurant, or make retail purchases. It is no surprise that the consumer sentiment index is down 16.6% from a year ago. See, http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ (site last visited 10/17/22). More troubling, 98% of U.S. CEO's in a recent survey said they are preparing for a U.S. recession and 99% are preparing for an E.U. recession. See, https://bit.ly/3EUuvCF (site last visited 10/17/22).
Given this economic turbulence and pessimism, it is not surprising that commercial bankruptcy rates have started to tick upwards in third quarter of 2022. While commercial filings are still lagging 2021 on a year-to-date basis, the filings have increased in September for a second consecutive month and represent a significant increase when compared to last September (16% increase compared to September 2021). See, https://bit.ly/3SneJmK (site last visited 10/17/22).
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