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Prognostication Is a Mug's Game

By Bruce W. Marcus
August 31, 2010

The British have a marvelous expression for foolish activities. They call them “a mug's game.” Well, prognostication is a mug's game.

The reason that predictions are so hard to get right is simple to fathom. In today's dynamic world, any course of action will likely be affected by unforeseeable random events that alter that course. For example, just a few years ago, who could have predicted LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter ' much less the impact the social networks would have on society and business? Many of us remember when blogs were considered to be fads that would ultimately die or fade away. Now, blogs are ubiquitous, and an integral part of the business process. The fascinating thing about these devices is that they impacted the business world so rapidly that there wasn't time to predict them before they became important business tools.

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