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After Another Big Year, Law Firms Should Plan for Recession
Looking at the 2021 AmLaw 200 results, overall, the AmLaw 200 did very well last year. Among other benchmarks, the AmLaw 200:
- Posted the biggest YOY increases in revenue, RPL, and PEP in more than 10 years.
- Gross revenue increases more than 9%.
- RPL increased more than 7%.
- PEP increased by approximately 12%.
While the AmLaw 200 results were quite impressive, 2021 continued the cycle of the AmLaw 100 firms continuing to widen the gap between themselves and the "other" 100.
- Gross revenue in the AmLaw 100 increased by approximately 15%.
- RPL in the AmLaw 100 increased by 12.5%.
- PEP increased by 20%.
Perhaps the most startling measure of the gap was that two AmLaw 100 firms increased their YOY gross revenue by more than the combined increase of all the AmLaw 200 firms.
2022 and Beyond
What might 2022 and 2023 hold? Preliminary Q1 results from the Thompson Reuters LFFI survey reports a strong 2.7% growth in demand. However, the positive growth numbers were offset by significant growth in compensation (13%) and overhead (10%). Indicators point to continued growth in both of those categories over this year and calendar 2023.
The possibility of a recession continues to grow with a number of economists predicting that by the textbook measure (two consecutive quarters of declining growth), the U.S. economy will enter a recession in July of this year.
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